November 02, 2004
If Wishes Were Horses . . . .

Nine days ago, I sent in my submission for Mark Steyn's election prediction contest. It seems only fair to list them here, so my readers can laugh at everything I got wrong. Many of these are just random guesses, and some are in fact not what I thought most likely, but what I thought most likely of all the possibilities that would not necessarily have been claimed by others before I sent mine in. My guesses, which may involve a fair amount of wishful thinking:

  1. Popular vote: Bush 52.9, Kerry 44.2
  2. Electoral vote: Bush by 359-179 (I can dream, can't I? I should have included at least one faithless elector and made it add up to 537, like last time, to cut down on the chances that someone else would have picked my numbers first.)
  3. Last state to declare: HI (Too obvious for anyone else to pick?)
  4. States that will switch sides:
    Bush to Kerry: None
    Kerry to Bush: NJ
  5. Maine split: 3-1 for Bush. (Unlikely, but I figure others had already claimed the other split, a Kerry sweep, and probably a Bush sweep, too. And it could happen.)
  6. Home state percentages:
    Bush in TX: 61.1
    Cheney in WY: 71.3
    Kerry in MA: 62.2
    Edwards in NC: 43.1
  7. Congressional balances:
    Senate: 56 Republican, 43 Democrats, 1 Jefford
    House: 237 Republicans, 197 Democrats, 1 Bernie Sanders
  8. Loser senatorial incumbents:
    Dem: Daschle (Too easy and obvious by now?)
    Rep: None
  9. Daschle's percentage: 48.7 (I would pick something lower if I sent this in today.)
  10. Run the Map:
    Kerry: CA, CT, HI, IL, MA, MD, 1/4 of ME (1 EV on split vote), MI, NY, RI, VT, WA, plus DC. (I forgot Delaware.)
    Bush: Everything else -- do I really need to list them?
Posted by Dr. Weevil at November 02, 2004 03:48 PM