This seems like a pretty safe prediction:
By this time next year, there will be either two Shiite theocracies in the Middle East, or none. Things are likely to get messy, but I think 'none' is more likely. Double or nothing is a dangerous tactic, and the ayatollahs should know better than to try it.
Posted by Dr. Weevil at April 24, 2003 04:32 PMI ain't saying this is what they ought to do, but I keep wondering how can it work any other way. The Shiites and Kurds are ascending, so any political peace in Iraq is about those two splitting the Sunni areas and breaking into two separate countries, or a very loose Lebanon-style federation of the two groups. Will the Turks allow the Kurds that much power without a stink? I think so. The U.S. attitude isn't going to be very indulgent of Turkey for awhile. I've always felt that the war with be the easy part. I was pretty sure we could defeat Saddam, but I wasn't sure we could defeat the whole Iraqi population if they rose up against us. Not neatly anyway. One thing for certain, it's going to stay real interesting over there for awhile yet.
Cheers.