March 28, 2003

In his philosophical treatise On Old Age Cicero wrote (Cato Maior De Senectute 24):

Nemo . . . est tam senex qui se annum non putet posse vivere.

No one is so old that he doesn't think he can live one more year.

I've sometimes wondered how old you have to be before this expectation becomes unrealistic, but was always too lazy to look it up. I tended to assume that the age at which you have a less than even chance of making it through one more year would be somewhere in the 90s. According to John Derbyshire in The Corner, it's 105.

Posted by Dr. Weevil at March 28, 2003 11:38 PM
Comments

According to IRS Table V for Ordinary Life Annuities - One Life - Expected Return Multiples (unisex), life expectancy at age 110 is 1.0 (one year), and life expectancy at age 111 is .9, that is nine-tenths of a year.

Posted by: Dean Campbell on March 29, 2003 07:40 PM