PatioPundit writes: "Perhaps the real October surprise will be that Iran will be first." Almost four months ago, I argued that putting Iran before Iraq, if that could be arranged, would have a useful psychological effect, since Afghanistan, Iran, and Iraq line up like a row of dominoes pointing at Syria, Palestine, and Egypt, with Saudi Arabia a little to the left of the main axis. (Click here for the main argument, here for the map.)

The effect on other countries would be all the more striking in that the three liberations would have been accomplished by different methods:

1. In Afghanistan, the U.S. intervened in a Civil War and tipped the scales by a combination of air support, logistical support, and special forces, with relatively little use of our own ground troops in traditional roles (or numbers).
2. In Iran, it looks like a popular uprising is imminent, and the U.S. need only provide encouragement and stay out of the way.
3. In Iraq, a full-scale invasion and temporary occupation with ground troops will likely be required to root out Saddam's regime.